Tuesday, November 02, 2004

As I suspect, there wasn't much of a wait in at our polling place. My area is Democratic, but more the conservative/moderate Democrat type. In fact, I think I read a news article not too long ago that there were discussion about taking evolution out of the curriculum. I ignored it, I just don't see that happening in Maryland. But tells you what we sometimes deal with down here.

Maryland is Kerry country, but it felt good to go out and vote. Yesterday was terrible--the waiting and all. I felt like that scene in Saving Private Ryan, just before the big nasty battle to save the bridge at the end--the eerie calm before the storm.

When we pulled up to the polling place, there was a KE guy handing out little flyers with all the Democratic names and faces and there was a guy for the Republican Senate challenger, Pipkin is his name, I believe. The Kerry guy seemed in good spirits and why not, almost everyone in the polling place had one of these cards. On the voter register with my name, I noted that the entire page was full and everyone had voted (9:30 am) and they were all Democrats.

Turnout is going to be huge everywhere, most especially OH and FL. Final polls out are looking good for Kerry especially in NH and IA. I'm looking for positive surprises in NM, CO and NV. I'm nervous about Michigan and WI, but feel pretty good about Florida and Ohio. If we win FL and OH, we win. I think we are in very good shape.

I can't wait to see the voting states and the internals. I am so curious about the catholic vote. Conventional Wisdom (CW) says that it mirrors nationwide vote, but somehow, I think it may swing more one way or the other, this year. It was already favoring Kerry and I don't see anything to mute that swing.

(I'll put my foot in my mouth if it is otherwise) Bush, at his Dallas, TX, rally, last nite, looked subdued. I think they are all bracing for very bad news. For instance, Kerry leads in early Fl voting by 16 points and 30% of the electorate has voted. This would mean that Bush would have to win the election day vote by almost 7 points which is highly unlikely. Especially since the Miami Herald has noted that Miami-Dade county, heavily Democratic, has added about 90,000 new Kerry supporters to the rolls. These are votes that Bush already has to make up elsewhere in Florida. Also the trend is that 2% of Democrats are voting for Bush, but 5% of Republicans are voting Kerry, and Kerry holds a substantial lead among Independents in Fl and nationwide. So ultimately, Kerry is looking in good shape in FL. The same holds true for Iowa, but IA is less important at this point, unlike OH and Fl split and are a wash.

I think the Bush team understands its situation. Even in the most skewed of polls, the Gallup and Fox polls, which vastly over sample Republicans, Bush is not doing well and is stuck at 46-48%, which are very bad numbers for an incumbent. Undecideds generally break for the challenger and incumbents rarely get a point or at most 2 points higher than their approval ratings.

The contrast is Kerry, who spent the night in Wisconsin and will be out and about in the battle ground states today. Kerry, knows that this election is his to lose and Bush may know that it is lost, which is why he wasted an evening at a rally in Dallas stomping for the Republican Sessions.

Then again, I may be eating crow tomorrow morning, but I am very optimistic. I just spoke with a lady today who said, "We NEED Mr Kerry, NOT WANT, but NEED." I say "Amen" to that.


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