Friday, March 28, 2003

I feel like I'm turning slightly regarding the war. I support it, I think Bush screwed policy and thrust us in this position but we are here and so move ahead. However, I think they have gravely misjudged the longterm foreign policy implications.

Commentators often point to Iran as an example of containment. Iran was an arch enemy at one time but now we know for a fact that internally there is a fierce struggle for control between the hardliners who support terrorism and the reformers, of whom most are young. We can be fairly certain that in 10-20 years a democratic situation may begin to emerge based on its internal dynamics and a stable democracy could ensue. This same sitatuation is possible with Iraq. These things take time.

Libya is another example. The US and Libya were arch enemies at one time, now Quaddafi is a footnote and not considered as much of a threat as he once was. He did not even make the axis of evil. The situation is certainly now better for low level diplomatic talks between the US and Libya. This is another good example how containment may work.

With our current intervention, I think we may have poisoned the waters in that area of the world. Democracy in the Arab world has taken a hit and even if it arises, we'll get instances like Turkey that have moved to an anti-American slant.


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